ING：AI与通胀的拉锯战如何扰动市场
ING认为，本周美国通胀数据超预期曾推动两年期互换利率上行20个基点，但CoreWeave消息引发AI交易担忧后涨势迅速逆转，凸显市场对美联储加息原因的分歧：是通胀过高还是AI投资令金融条件过松。作者判断，若加息主要因通胀，则美联储无需恐慌，租金降温、工资增速回落有望使通胀在明年二季度接近2%。ING预计美联储12月再加息一次，并可能最早于2027年末重启降息。
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机构原始发布美国9月工业产出环比+0.7%超预期，先进制造与AI链领跑
ING引述10月16日公布的美国工业产出报告：9月整体产出环比+0.7%、同比+2.2%，高于报道所列0.4%的预期，8月增速上修0.1个百分点；制造业环比+0.3%（汽车产量-3%形成拖累），公用事业环比+3.5%，矿业+0.2%。年初以来制造业新增就业7.2万，周均工时40.6小时创3.5年新高。
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比利时三年百亿欧元节支谈判未果，2027预算成焦点
ING研报指出，比利时执政联盟未能就三年100亿欧元经常性节支方案达成一致，将标准增值税率从21%上调至22%的核心条款遭一联盟党反对，首相一般政策声明被迫推迟。修改后时间表优先争取10月底前就含40亿欧元节支的2027预算达成协议，以避免启用临时十二分法。
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匈牙利中央统计局数据显示，2026年8月平均毛工资同比上涨8.4%，为连续第二个月加速，且显著超出预期；净收入重回两位数增长，净实际收入同比增8.6%。ING认为一次性因素（热浪加班、Paks核电站状况）可能推高读数，常规工资增速明显低于含一次性支付的总额增速，故维持2026年全年工资增速9-10%的判断、偏上沿。
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