CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: Hungary and the Czech Republic will release third-quarter GDP estimates next week, while Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan announce their latest monetary policy decisions
Our joint report with Fasanara Digital examines how market structure is shifting into the fourth quarter, and what it means for institutional allocators.
EUROPE: The decrease in the composite PMI from 53.1 to 51.9 still leaves the index at a level associated with decent growth. Growth concerns seem mostly centred around France while input costs are rising across the eurozone again
Rising energy prices? BORING! The ECB looks like it will be tied up with more pressing issues next week, like France and the future of ECB President Christine Lagarde. Even markets are losing interest. Yet the sharp rise in natural gas pri…
The yen and Swiss franc have emerged as the safe havens of choice as the greenback continues to show some vulnerability to the AI story. A further widening in French spreads has not materially hit the euro, but that correlation may spike a…
ASIA/PACIFIC: The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates at 1.25%, while Taiwan’s economy is set to record another quarter of double-digit growth. Markets will also focus on China’s Fifth Plenum meeting and South Korea’s third-quarter GDP…
The US 10yr yield gapped back below 5% with some conviction. We're not convinced it keeps on going. More likely it ultimately reverts up again. Brent oil pushed above $110 for the first time since May, but weaker market sentiment prevented…
ASIA/PACIFIC: We expect a 25bp hike on 28 October by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Since the dovish September meeting, rising oil prices, higher front-end rates globally and weakness in the NZ dollar all point to risks of inflation over…
The U.S. refinery fleet has run at higher-than-normal rates this year, with refinery utilization averaging more than 95% of capacity between May and September, the highest for those months since 1998. Tight global product supplies this yea…
TURKEY: The Turkish central bank has cut the policy rate by 100bp to 36%, as expected, amid improving inflation and continued weakness in domestic demand. The bank also indicated that additional rate cuts are likely unless there is a mater…